NZ Mortgage Lending Statistics 2025: $85.8 Billion Analysed
New Zealand's mortgage market processed $85.8 billion in 2025. We break down the RBNZ data and explain who's borrowing, investor vs FHB market share, fixed vs floating trends, and the $381B mortgage book.
Updated 3 January 2025
Key Findings and the Headline Numbers
The Power Shift - Investors vs First Home Buyers
The Interest Rate Strategies of Borrowers Vary
To explain what you need to know, our guide covers:
- Total new mortgage lending (Jan-Nov 2025): $85.8 billion - up 27.8% on the same period in 2024 (a significant increase)
- Total borrowers: 220,029 - the busiest year since the 2021 property boom
- Total mortgage book: $381.2 billion - what New Zealand households owe on their homes
- Implied average interest rate: ~5.5% - elevated but expected to fall through 2026 as the OCR has dropped LINK and the interest rate outlook is flat LINK
- Mortgage debt to GDP: 91.3% - among the highest in the developed world, New Zealand's economy drives this, focused on houses LINK
The Power Shift - Investors vs First Home Buyers
- Investors borrowed $18.1 billion (+36% YoY) - reclaiming market share lost since 2021
- First home buyers borrowed $16.8 billion (+17% YoY) - 29,249 households entered the market
- Investors now hold 21.1% market share vs FHBs at 19.6% - this is the first time since 2021 that investors lead
The Interest Rate Strategies of Borrowers Vary
- Floating rate share: 29.6% of new lending - up from 19.4% in 2023 as borrowers bet on OCR cuts
- 1-year fixed dominates: 51% of fixed lending - short-term fixing reflects rate cut expectations
- High-LVR lending: 12.4% of total - the highest share in years, driven by first home buyers
To explain what you need to know, our guide covers:
- Total Lending - We Outline the $85.8 Billion in New Mortgages
- Who's Borrowing - The Investor Resurgence
- First Home Buyers - Record Numbers, Shrinking Share
- What Borrowers Did With Their Mortgages
- Fixed vs Floating - Borrowers Bet on Rate Cuts
- The $381 Billion Mortgage Book
- Regional Split and High-LVR Lending
- The Broader Economy - Mortgages in Context
- Frequently Asked Questions
How often is this data updated?
Important: This guide covers new mortgage lending (the flow of new approvals) and the total mortgage book (the total of all outstanding mortgage debt). These are different measures - new lending reflects market activity, while the book shows total household mortgage debt.
- The RBNZ publishes mortgage lending data monthly LINK. This guide uses January-November 2025 data (the latest available) because December is distorted by the holiday period - bank processing slows, settlements are deferred, and volumes drop artificially.
- November represents the last full month of normal market activity, and our research team updates this guide annually when November data is released.
- While this guide is comprehensive, each section is designed to stand on its own - you can read it start-to-finish or jump directly to the parts most relevant to you.
Important: This guide covers new mortgage lending (the flow of new approvals) and the total mortgage book (the total of all outstanding mortgage debt). These are different measures - new lending reflects market activity, while the book shows total household mortgage debt.
The Bigger Picture - What You Need to Know
Lending is up, but that doesn't mean house prices will rise
We note the following observations:
- A 27.8% increase in mortgage lending sounds dramatic, but lending data shows financing capacity, not price direction.
- House prices are determined by supply and demand for actual properties. With building consents still elevated (38,000+ per year) LINK, population growth moderating LINK, and net migration slowing LINK, increased lending may be absorbed by increased housing supply rather than driving prices higher.
- In summary, more people with approved mortgages doesn't mean higher prices if there are also more houses to buy.
We note the following observations:
- The recovery is real, but context matters: Lending fell 37% between 2021 ($99 billion) and 2023 ($62 billion). The 2025 recovery brings activity back toward normal levels - not boom levels. At this pace, full-year 2025 will finish around $93-95 billion, still below the 2021 peak.
- The investor comeback is a theme of 2025: Investors borrowed $18.1 billion (+36% YoY) - the biggest increase of any borrower type. This recovery follows the sharp pullback caused by changes to interest deductibility LINK and higher interest rates LINK. With interest deductibility being phased back in, some investors have returned with conviction. For the first time since 2021, investors command a larger market share than first-home buyers.
- First home buyers face more competition: Record numbers of first home buyers (29,249) entered the market, but their share of lending is shrinking. FHBs now represent 19.6% of lending, down from 23.6% in 2023. More competition from investors and owner-occupiers means first-home buyers are working harder to secure properties. The absolute numbers are good; the relative position is weakening.
- Borrowers are betting on rate cuts: The surge in floating rate lending (29.6%, up from 19.4% in 2023) shows borrowers expect rates to fall. Those on floating rates benefit immediately when the OCR drops. Those who fix short (1-year or less accounts for 69% of fixed lending) are positioning to refix at lower rates soon. This is a collective bet on continued OCR cuts through 2026.
- The $381 billion mortgage book isn't going anywhere: Total household mortgage debt grew 5.7% in the year to September 2025. At 91% of GDP, New Zealand's mortgage debt is among the highest in the developed world (Australia: ~92%; US: ~50%). The implied average rate of ~5.5% means households are collectively paying approximately $21 billion per year in mortgage interest alone LINK.
- Remortaging is booming - and you should check your rate: Remortgaging hit $21.6 billion (25.2% of lending), up from 21.0% in 2023. This reflects borrowers actively shopping for better rates as fixed terms expire. If you haven't checked your rate recently, you may be paying more than you need to. Banks are competing aggressively for remortgage business.
Key Statistics at a Glance
Key data is presented below, and discussed in detail in the relevant sections throughout this guide
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Total Lending - $85.8 Billion in New Mortgages
New Zealand's mortgage market processed $85.8 billion in new lending during the first eleven months of 2025. This represents a 27.8% increase on the same period in 2024 ($67.1 billion) and signals a clear recovery from the 2023 trough ($62.1 billion full year).
Know This - Context Matters: The 27.8% increase sounds dramatic, but lending fell 37% between 2021 and 2023. The 2025 figure brings us back toward normal - not boom - levels. At this pace, full-year 2025 will finish around $93-95 billion, still below the $99 billion peak of 2021.
Know This - Context Matters: The 27.8% increase sounds dramatic, but lending fell 37% between 2021 and 2023. The 2025 figure brings us back toward normal - not boom - levels. At this pace, full-year 2025 will finish around $93-95 billion, still below the $99 billion peak of 2021.
Annual Lending History
2025 Quarterly Breakdown
The recovery has been consistent across quarters, though it has had a slow start to the year. Q1 reflected typical seasonal patterns (summer holidays) plus lingering high interest rates before OCR cuts LINK gained momentum.
Our View: The quarterly pattern shows steady investor dominance throughout 2025. In every quarter, investors commanded a larger share than first home buyers - a reversal of the 2022-2023 pattern when FHBs led. Activity accelerated through Q2 and Q3 as OCR cuts flowed through to mortgage rates.
Our View: The quarterly pattern shows steady investor dominance throughout 2025. In every quarter, investors commanded a larger share than first home buyers - a reversal of the 2022-2023 pattern when FHBs led. Activity accelerated through Q2 and Q3 as OCR cuts flowed through to mortgage rates.
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Who's Borrowing and What the Numbers Mean
The standout trend of 2025 is the investor comeback. Property investors borrowed $18.1 billion through November - up 36% on the same period in 2024. This recovery follows the sharp pullback caused by interest deductibility changes LINK in 2021 and subsequent higher interest rates from OCR increases LINK.
Know This: In 2023, first home buyers commanded 23.6% of the market while investors held just 17.0%. By 2025, those positions have reversed, as investors now hold 21.1% while FHBs have slipped to 19.6%. This is the first time since 2021 that investors have outpaced first-home buyers in market share.
Know This: In 2023, first home buyers commanded 23.6% of the market while investors held just 17.0%. By 2025, those positions have reversed, as investors now hold 21.1% while FHBs have slipped to 19.6%. This is the first time since 2021 that investors have outpaced first-home buyers in market share.
Full Borrower Breakdown - 2025 (Jan-Nov)
FHB vs Investor Market Share Over Time
Why Are Investors Returning to Property?
Two main factors drive the investor growth:
Our View: The investor resurgence may mean more investors compete with FHBs for the same properties, particularly for lower-priced properties that suit both groups. However, this doesn't automatically mean higher prices - supply conditions matter too.
Two main factors drive the investor growth:
- Interest deductibility restoration: The 2021 LINK phase-out of interest deductibility significantly hurt investor returns. The NACT government then phased it back in LINK, improving the economics of rental property. By April 2025, investors can deduct 80% of interest costs (up from 50%), with full restoration by April 2026.
- Lower borrowing costs: OCR cuts have reduced mortgage rates from peaks above 7% to current levels LINK. Investors see an opportunity to acquire properties at today's prices with lower financing costs in the future.
Our View: The investor resurgence may mean more investors compete with FHBs for the same properties, particularly for lower-priced properties that suit both groups. However, this doesn't automatically mean higher prices - supply conditions matter too.
First Home Buyers - Record Numbers But a Shrinking Share of Total New Mortgages
First home buyers present a mixed picture. In absolute terms, 2025 has been strong - 29,249 first home buyers entered the market through to the end of November, already exceeding 2024's full-year total of 28,774. This makes 2025 the second-best year on record, behind only the exceptional 32,493 who bought in 2021.
Know This - Record Numbers, Smaller Slice: More first home buyers are getting into the market than almost any year on record - but they're claiming a smaller slice of total lending (19.6% vs 23.6% in 2023). This means the market is growing faster than FHBs can keep pace, primarily due to an investor resurgence and owner-occupier activity.
Know This - Record Numbers, Smaller Slice: More first home buyers are getting into the market than almost any year on record - but they're claiming a smaller slice of total lending (19.6% vs 23.6% in 2023). This means the market is growing faster than FHBs can keep pace, primarily due to an investor resurgence and owner-occupier activity.
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Children's Health Insurance (2024)
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Regional Coverage (2024)
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